The tectonic plates of global geopolitics are shifting once again. For months, the world watched the escalating war of words, trade tariffs, and strategic posturing between Washington and Beijing. But a recent flurry of diplomatic handshakes—from Secretary Blinken’s trip to Yellen’s and now whispers of a potential Biden-Xi summit—signals a significant thaw.
While many call this responsible management of great power rivalry, from New Delhi’s South Block, it looks worryingly like the revival of a ghost we thought long buried: the G-2 duopoly.
What is the G-2 and Why Does It Worry India?
The concept of a “G-2,” a duopoly where the United States and China collaboratively manage the world, was first floated over a decade ago. It represented a nightmare scenario for a rising India, threatening to cap its ambitions and relegate it to the status of a regional, not global, player.
The idea faded as US-China competition intensified, but this new détente feels like a G-2 in a different guise. It’s a concert of rivals, deciding the rules of the game while other nations are left to play by them.
From Indispensable Partner to Third Wheel?
For the past few years, India has skillfully navigated the US-China rift. New Delhi became Washington’s indispensable partner in the Indo-Pacific, the cornerstone of the Quad, and the democratic counterweight to an authoritarian China. Our strategic importance soared. The West needed India’s market, its military muscle, and its demographic might to balance Beijing.
This alignment, while never a formal alliance, gave India unprecedented leverage on the world stage. We were courted, celebrated, and positioned as the “third pole” in a multipolar world. But what happens when the two main poles decide to manage their differences directly?
The Pragmatic Calculus of a US-China Détente
The pragmatic calculus in Washington is clear. The Biden administration needs to de-risk the relationship, manage economic interdependence, and secure Chinese cooperation on global issues like climate change and pandemic preparedness. A stable, predictable relationship with Beijing is a political and economic necessity. This isn’t about friendship; it’s about putting a floor under the freefall.
The unintended consequence of this “floor,” however, is that it lowers India’s strategic ceiling. If the US and China are talking, does Washington need India as urgently to counter Beijing? When the two biggest economies coordinate on everything from tech standards to green energy supply chains, is India’s “Make in India” dream at risk of being sidelined?
Security Implications on the Line of Actual Control (LAC)
The most chilling question for India is how this impacts our immediate security. Will a US administration, keen on securing a climate deal or preventing a crisis over Taiwan, press Beijing as hard on its transgressions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC)?
The fear is that India’s border concerns could become a bargaining chip—a secondary issue in the grand scheme of US-China co-management. Our value as a “swing state” diminishes when the two major blocs decide to stop swinging and start talking.
The Path Forward: Strategic Autonomy and Self-Reliance
This isn’t a call for panic, but a wake-up call. India’s aspiration of becoming a “Vishwa Guru” (world leader) cannot be dependent on the whims of another nation’s foreign policy. This G-2 realignment is the clearest signal yet that the path of “Atmanirbhar Bharat“—a truly self-reliant India—is not just an economic slogan but a strategic imperative.
New Delhi must now accelerate its multi-alignment strategy, strengthening ties with Europe, Japan, Australia, and the nations of the Global South with renewed vigour. Our ultimate leverage will not come from being a counterweight, but from our own weight. A $5 trillion, and then a $10 trillion, economy with a modernised military needs no one’s permission to sit at the high table.
The US-China embrace may feel like a cold shoulder for now, but it could be the very thing that forces India to build its own, warmer fire.
