As Bihar enters the second phase of its high-stakes Assembly elections, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’s traditional strongholds—Jehanabad and Seemanchal—are witnessing fierce battles against the BJP-JD(U) alliance. With 94 constituencies voting on November 3, these regions could shape Bihar’s political future.
Jehanabad: Can RJD Retain Its Citadel?
Jehanabad, a long-standing RJD bastion in the Magadh region, is now a hotly contested battlefield. The party has fielded veteran Suday Yadav, while JD(U)’s Samrat Choudhary and BJP’s Hindutva push aim to disrupt RJD’s Yadav-Muslim voter base.
Key Factors in Jehanabad:
- Caste Dynamics: Non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits are being aggressively courted by BJP.
- Governance Debate: JD(U) attacks RJD’s past record, while BJP highlights central welfare schemes.
Seemanchal: A Four-Cornered Fight
The Muslim-majority Seemanchal region, bordering Nepal and Bangladesh, is a political tinderbox. While RJD-Congress rely on minority votes, BJP’s national security narrative and AIMIM’s entry could split the opposition.
Key Constituencies:
- Kishanganj: RJD’s Akhtarul Iman vs. JD(U)’s Sweety Singh; BJP’s Dilip Jaiswal eyes Hindu consolidation.
- Araria & Katihar: JD(U) replaces sitting MLA Sarfaraz Alam to counter anti-incumbency; RJD banks on anti-CAA sentiment.
Top Issues Influencing Voters
- Caste Loyalty vs. Development: RJD relies on traditional bases; NDA touts infrastructure and PM-Kisan.
- Farm Crisis: Loan waivers and MSP promises dominate rural areas.
- Migrant Worker Woes: Opposition targets Nitish Kumar over unemployment.
- Communal Polarization: BJP’s “infiltration” rhetoric and AIMIM’s presence heighten tensions.
Will RJD Survive the NDA Onslaught?
Analysts predict tighter margins in RJD strongholds. The party’s success hinges on:
– Transfer of votes to allies like Congress and CPI(ML).
– NDA’s ability to unite non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits.
Conclusion: A Litmus Test for Bihar’s Politics
Phase 2 will reveal whether Bihar’s electorate prioritizes caste loyalty or governance. An RJD hold signals revival; NDA gains could solidify Nitish Kumar’s dominance.
Results on November 10 will decide if old allegiances endure or new trends emerge.
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