Netanyahu at a Career-Defining Crossroads
New Delhi – A political storm is brewing in Jerusalem, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a master of political survival, finds himself at its center. The choice before him is stark and will define his legacy. The pivotal question is whether he will accept a potential Trump Gaza plan designed for regional realignment, or pander to the far-right partners who hold the keys to his political kingdom.
Trump’s Grand Bargain: A Path to Saudi Normalization
The proposition, reportedly being floated by allies of the former US President, is classic Trumpian deal-making. It focuses less on the granular details of Palestinian statehood and more on a grand, top-down bargain. The package likely includes a ceasefire and hostage release deal for Gaza, but the true prize is the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites. For Israel, this is a strategic game-changer, cementing a powerful regional alliance against Iran and unlocking immense economic potential.
However, the entry fee for this historic handshake with Riyadh would almost certainly require a tangible, albeit perhaps vaguely defined, “pathway” to a future Palestinian state. This is the poison pill for Netanyahu’s current coalition.
The Far-Right Red Line: A Two-State Solution
Enter Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the hardline ministers whose nationalist parties form the bedrock of Netanyahu’s government. For them, the concept of a Palestinian state is not a bargaining chip; it is an existential red line. Their political ideology is built on an uncompromising vision of Israeli sovereignty over the entire land. Any concession, no matter how symbolic, is seen as a betrayal. They have made it clear: if Netanyahu even gestures towards a two-state framework, they will walk, collapsing the government and likely ending his tenure.
A Leader’s Torturous Bind: Legacy vs. Survival
This dilemma leaves Netanyahu trapped. On one hand, the statesman in him sees the monumental legacy. Securing peace with Saudi Arabia would be an achievement that dwarfs his previous accomplishments, placing him in the pantheon of Israel’s founding fathers. It would align Israel with the strategic goals of the United States and secure its position in the Middle East for decades.
On the other hand, the political survivor knows his immediate power depends entirely on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. Forfeiting their support for a plan from a not-yet-elected Trump is a high-stakes gamble. Netanyahu must decide whether the potential for a historic achievement is worth the immediate risk of political oblivion.
Global Stakes: Why the World is Watching
From New Delhi’s perspective, this is more than distant political theatre. India has carefully cultivated relationships with both Israel and key Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia. The ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) hinges on regional stability between these very players. A landmark Israeli-Saudi accord would supercharge such projects, while deeper ideological conflict would halt them.
The choice before Netanyahu is between two futures. One is pragmatic regional integration, aligning with the interests of the US and moderate Arab states. The other is ideological purity, satisfying his domestic base but isolating Israel. The world waits to see whether he will choose a grand strategic realignment or pander to the far-right demands that keep him in power.
