Bihar Exit Polls 2024: NDA Poised for Dominance, Congress Dismisses Projections
The political landscape in Bihar is buzzing as exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections forecast a sweeping victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the NDA is projected to secure 30-35 of Bihar’s 40 seats. While the JD(U) calls this a “public stamp of approval” for Nitish Kumar’s governance, the Congress has rejected the predictions, calling them “inaccurate.”
Exit Polls Predict NDA Landslide
Multiple exit polls suggest the NDA could win 30-35 seats, a strong performance compared to its 2019 tally of 39 (BJP-17, JD(U)-16, LJP-6). Meanwhile, the opposition INDIA bloc—comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties—is expected to secure only 5-10 seats.
JD(U) leader Vijay Kumar Chaudhary stated, “These results reflect public trust in Nitish Kumar’s leadership and the NDA’s development agenda.” BJP state chief Samrat Choudhary credited PM Modi’s popularity and welfare schemes for the projected victory.
Congress, RJD Dismiss Exit Polls
The Congress has strongly contested the exit poll numbers. Bihar Congress chief Akhilesh Prasad Singh called them “manipulated,” adding, “Our ground reports suggest a much stronger INDIA bloc performance.” RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav remained cautious, saying, “We trust voters, not exit polls.”
Political analysts suggest the Congress’s reaction stems from its high stakes in Bihar, where it contested nine seats. A poor showing could further weaken its position in the state.
Did Nitish Kumar’s NDA Return Pay Off?
Nitish Kumar’s decision to rejoin the NDA in January 2024—after leaving the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) with the RJD—appears validated if the exit polls hold. JD(U) insiders claim the move was a “strategic masterstroke,” leveraging Modi’s appeal and BJP’s organizational strength.
The BJP, meanwhile, benefits from a consolidated anti-RJD vote, particularly among upper castes and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). The polls also indicate NDA gains in traditional RJD strongholds like Purnea and Khagaria.
Key Takeaways & What’s Next
- NDA’s Broad Support Base – The alliance has reportedly united EBCs, Dalits, and upper castes, with BJP’s Pasmanda Muslim outreach possibly making an impact.
- RJD’s Declining Influence? – Tejashwi Yadav’s focus on unemployment and caste census may not have resonated enough to counter the NDA wave.
- Congress in Crisis – A weak result could trigger leadership debates within Bihar Congress, with demands for greater autonomy from central leadership.
Final Verdict: All Eyes on June 4
While exit polls have a mixed accuracy record, the overwhelming NDA lead has already shifted post-poll narratives. If confirmed, the results will reinforce the NDA’s dominance in Bihar, pressuring the INDIA bloc to regroup before the 2025 state elections.
— NextMinuteNews Political Desk
