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The political fate of Bihar’s Raghopur assembly seat hangs in balance as counting unfolds, with RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav facing a stiff challenge from BJP-JD(U)’s Satish Kumar. The high-voltage contest has turned into a litmus test for the Yadav family’s dominance and Bihar’s shifting power equations.
Raghopur: A Yadav Family Fortress Under Siege
For decades, Raghopur in Vaishali district has been a Yadav stronghold, with Tejashwi winning consecutively in 2015 and 2020. His father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, cemented RJD’s influence here. However, BJP’s Satish Kumar—a two-time Hajipur MLA—poses a serious threat this time, backed by NDA’s aggressive outreach and Modi-Shah rallies.
NDA’s Game Plan: Development vs Dynasty
The BJP-JD(U) alliance has weaponized anti-dynasty rhetoric and targeted Tejashwi’s inexperience:
– PM Modi’s speeches emphasized “Vikas” (development) over “Parivaarvaad” (nepotism).
– Welfare schemes like PM Awas Yojana wooed EBCs and Dalits.
– JD(U)’s rural mobilization countered RJD’s traditional MY (Muslim-Yadav) base.
Tejashwi’s Counterattack: Jobs & Caste Arithmetic
The RJD leader doubled down on core issues:
– Promised 10 lakh jobs and farm loan waivers.
– Rallied Yadavs (25% voters) and Muslims (15%) through social media blitzes.
– Invoked Lalu’s legacy in emotional roadshows.
Key Factors Deciding Raghopur’s Fate
- Caste Calculus: Will non-Yadav OBCs and Paswans tilt toward BJP?
- Booth Management: Which party secured better voter turnout?
- Late Swings: Floating voters in urban pockets could be decisive.
Implications for Bihar’s Political Map
- RJD Loss: A blow to Tejashwi’s CM ambitions and Mahagathbandhan unity.
- NDA Win: Signals erosion of RJD’s grassroots hold beyond MY combine.
Early Trends & Exit Poll Signals
Initial leads indicate a photo finish, with exit polls split between Tejashwi’s resilience and NDA’s surge. Experts warn: “Raghopur’s result may redefine Bihar’s opposition leadership.”
Final Verdict: More Than Just a Seat
Beyond numbers, Raghopur tests Tejashwi’s ability to carry Lalu’s legacy amid BJP’s dominance. A win would cement his claim as Bihar’s opposition torchbearer; a loss could trigger RJD’s generational reckoning.
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