Bihar’s Electoral Puzzle: NDA’s Wins Amid Voter List Changes
A data analysis of Bihar’s recent elections reveals a curious trend: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won four of the five parliamentary seats with the highest and lowest voter deletions during the Summary Revision of Electoral Rolls (SIR). This anomaly has fueled debates about electoral fairness, but the Election Commission’s (EC) datasets don’t fit a clear pattern. Here’s a deep dive.
Key Constituencies Under Scrutiny
The five seats with extreme voter deletions—and their outcomes—are:
1. Pashchim Champaran (Highest deletions: ~1.2 lakh voters) – NDA (BJP)
2. Purvi Champaran (High deletions: ~1.1 lakh voters) – NDA (BJP)
3. Sheohar (Lowest deletions: ~2,500 voters) – NDA (JD(U))
4. Sitamarhi (Low deletions: ~3,000 voters) – NDA (JD(U))
5. Valmiki Nagar (Moderate deletions: ~50,000 voters) – RJD (Opposition)
The NDA won 80% of these seats, despite stark differences in deletion numbers. Valmiki Nagar, where the opposition triumphed, was the exception.
Why Don’t EC Datasets Explain the Pattern?
1. No Direct Link Between Deletions and Results
- Large deletions could theoretically disenfranchise voters, but the NDA won both high- and low-deletion seats, muddying any cause-effect relationship.
- The EC insists deletions were routine—removing duplicates, deceased voters, and migrants—but critics allege selective purging.
2. Political Loyalty Outweighs Deletions
- The NDA dominates Bihar’s rural belts (e.g., Champaran, Sitamarhi), where local support may have neutralized deletion impacts.
- Valmiki Nagar’s Yadav-Muslim base favored RJD regardless of deletions.
3. EC Data Shows No Systematic Bias
- Deletions occurred across parties’ strongholds (e.g., Kishanganj, a Congress seat, lost ~90,000 voters).
- Analysts say deletions, while significant, weren’t skewed to help one alliance.
Opposition vs. EC: Clashing Narratives
- Opposition Claims: RJD and Congress allege BJP-linked officials targeted Muslim/Yadav areas to suppress opposition votes.
- EC’s Response: Deletions followed due process, with objections open to all parties. Bihar’s high migration and past roll errors necessitated clean-ups.
The Larger Issue: Electoral Transparency
This controversy highlights enduring concerns about India’s voter roll system:
– Booth-Level Officers (BLOs): Are they politically influenced?
– Appeal Mechanisms: Were deleted voters adequately informed to reclaim enrollment?
Conclusion: Need for Data-Driven Accountability
While the NDA’s wins may reflect organic support, irregular deletion trends warrant scrutiny. The EC must provide granular, public data to restore trust. Until then, Bihar’s results remain a statistical enigma—open to interpretation but resistant to easy explanations.
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