Trump’s Tariff Contingency Plans Take Shape Ahead of Supreme Court Ruling
The U.S. Supreme Court’s pending decision in United States v. SolarWorld Americas could reshape presidential authority over tariffs. At stake is Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, used to justify steel/aluminum tariffs on national security grounds. With a ruling expected by June 2024, the Trump administration is preparing alternative strategies to maintain its trade policy leverage.
Here’s an in-depth look at the backup plans under consideration and their global implications.
Option 1: Pivot to Alternative Trade Laws
If Section 232 powers are curtailed, the administration may turn to:
– Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): Used against China, this allows tariffs for unfair practices. Biden continued its use; Trump could expand it.
– IEEPA: The International Emergency Economic Powers Act lets presidents regulate trade during crises but is untested for sweeping tariffs.
Option 2: Push Congress for New Authority
Some GOP lawmakers support legislation to explicitly broaden presidential tariff powers. However, bipartisan opposition and lengthy negotiations could delay this path.
Option 3: Replace Tariffs With Quotas or Deals
The administration might replicate past deals with the EU and Japan, where tariff threats led to negotiated export limits. This avoids legal challenges but lacks unilateral impact.
Option 4: Experiment With State-Level Trade Bans
Encouraging states to impose local procurement restrictions (e.g., banning foreign steel) could bypass federal hurdles—but risks regulatory chaos.
Why the Supreme Court Case Matters
The ruling will decide whether future presidents need congressional approval for aggressive tariffs. Outcomes could:
– Limit executive power, forcing bipartisan consensus on trade.
– Uphold unilateral authority, enabling more tariffs on EVs, semiconductors, or clean energy tech.
Global Fallout: Retaliation or Relief?
- China & EU may retaliate if U.S. tariffs expand but could ease trade wars if the Court restricts presidential power.
- Businesses face uncertainty; supply chains may shift based on the verdict.
What to Watch Next
The Supreme Court’s decision is expected by mid-2024. Regardless of the outcome, the U.S. will likely pursue protectionist policies—through executive action, laws, or deals.
Follow our coverage for updates on this pivotal trade policy battle.
