Introduction: A Shifting Middle East Power Balance
In the complex arena of Middle Eastern diplomacy, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s overt embrace of Saudi Arabia has reshaped alliances—and left Israel scrambling to secure its standing. Trump’s transactional foreign policy prioritized economic and strategic gains, but his lavish courtship of Riyadh weakened Israel’s traditional dominance in U.S. regional strategy.
The Trump-Saudi Alliance: A Strategic Game-Changer
Trump’s relationship with Saudi Arabia was marked by grand gestures. His first international trip as president in 2017 included a historic $110 billion arms deal with Riyadh. Despite controversies like the Jamal Khashoggi murder, Trump stood firmly behind Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), reinforcing Saudi Arabia as a cornerstone of his Middle East policy.
Key motivations included:
– Economic gains: Lucrative defense contracts for U.S. firms.
– Countering Iran: Saudi Arabia as a Sunni bulwark against Tehran.
– Diplomatic leverage: Pushing Arab-Israeli normalization via the Abraham Accords.
Yet this shift came at Israel’s expense, reducing its decades-long status as Washington’s top regional ally.
Israel’s Growing Unease: Losing Influence?
Historically, Israel enjoyed unwavering bipartisan U.S. support. But Trump’s Saudi-first approach highlighted Riyadh’s rising strategic value—leaving Tel Aviv with diminished leverage.
The Abraham Accords (2020) were a win for Israel, normalizing ties with the UAE, Bahrain, and others. However, Saudi Arabia’s absence from the deal revealed a harsh truth: Riyadh, not Jerusalem, holds the key to broader Middle East peace.
Israeli officials now acknowledge their dependence on U.S.-Saudi coordination—especially as Trump sidelined Israeli concerns in favor of Saudi priorities like arms sales and OPEC+ negotiations.
Biden’s Recalibration: A Partial Reversal
President Joe Biden initially took a harder line against Saudi Arabia, freezing arms sales and condemning MBS over Khashoggi’s killing. But global crises—like the Ukraine war and oil price surges—forced a U-turn, culminating in Biden’s controversial fist-bump with MBS in 2022.
For Israel, Biden’s policies offered both reassurance and concern:
– Pros: Reaffirmed U.S. security commitments.
– Cons: Reinforced Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical indispensability.
Reports of a potential U.S.-Saudi defense pact, possibly requiring Israeli concessions to Palestinians, have further unsettled Netanyahu’s government.
China’s Rising Role: A New Challenge
Saudi Arabia’s deepening ties with China add another layer of complexity. Beijing brokered a Saudi-Iran détente and secured major infrastructure investments, signaling Riyadh’s diversification away from U.S. dependence.
For Israel, this creates a dilemma:
– It relies on the U.S. for security but can’t ignore China, a critical trade partner.
– As Washington and Beijing compete for Gulf influence, Israel’s strategic flexibility shrinks.
Conclusion: Israel’s Uncertain Future
Trump’s Saudi-centric policies delivered wins for Israel (like the Abraham Accords) but also exposed its declining dominance in U.S. Middle East strategy.
With the 2024 U.S. election approaching, Israel faces tough choices:
– A Trump return could mean more Saudi-focused deals.
– A second Biden term might bring renewed pressure for Palestinian compromises.
One reality is clear: Saudi Arabia now holds the cards—and Israel must adapt to a regional order where it’s no longer the sole priority.
