The political cauldron of Bihar is once again on the boil. As the state gears up for another electoral showdown, the battle lines are being drawn between the NDA‘s Saffron might and the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB). Amidst the usual discourse of caste arithmetic, a crucial, often-underestimated factor is re-emerging: the colour Red.
The question echoing in Patna is no longer a fringe debate: Do the Left parties hold the key to the Grand Alliance’s victory? To find the answer, we must rewind to the nail-biting assembly election of 2020.
The 2020 Election: A Telling Contrast in Performance
The 2020 Bihar election was a watershed moment. While the MGB, led by Tejashwi Yadav, fell tantalisingly short of the majority, the alliance’s report card revealed a stunning truth. The weakest link was not the RJD, which emerged as the single-largest party, but the Congress. The grand old party managed to win only 19 of the 70 seats it contested—a dismal strike rate of just 27%.
In stark contrast, the Left parties, contesting a modest 29 seats, delivered a knockout performance.
* Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation (CPI(ML)L): Won an incredible 12 out of 19 seats.
* CPI and CPI(M): Chipped in with two seats each.
Combined, the Left bloc secured 16 out of 29 seats, a phenomenal strike rate of over 55%. In an election decided by razor-thin margins, this performance was not just impressive; it was alliance-defining.
What the Battle of 2020 Reveals About the Left’s Power
The 2020 results highlight the strategic importance of the Left parties for any future Bihar polls. Their success was built on three key pillars:
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Efficiency and Dedicated Cadre: Unlike parties that rely on resource-heavy campaigns, the Left’s strength lies in its deeply entrenched, ideologically-driven grassroots network. In their pockets of influence across regions like Bhojpur, Siwan, and Magadh, their cadre can mobilise voters with a discipline that larger parties often envy, transforming allotted seats into fortified bastions.
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Expanding the Social Base: While the RJD’s “M-Y” (Muslim-Yadav) equation remains its core strength, the Left effectively mobilised the most marginalised sections—Dalits, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), landless labourers, and youth agitated over unemployment. Their campaign, focused on tangible issues, created a potent “M-Y+Red” combination.
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A Blueprint for Seat-Sharing: The MGB’s 2020 loss is often attributed to the Congress’s inability to convert votes. The Left’s high strike rate presents a compelling case for Tejashwi Yadav to re-evaluate seat allocation. A pragmatic approach would involve granting a larger share to the Left parties in their areas of influence, a strategy strongly prescribed by the electoral math of 2020.
The Saffron vs Red Narrative: NDA‘s Counter-Strategy
Of course, the BJP-led NDA will be quick to paint this alliance as a return to “jungle raj” with a “radical” Red hue. They will likely use the “Tukde-Tukde” rhetoric to create a narrative of instability, aiming to consolidate their urban and upper-caste voter base.
However, for the Mahagathbandhan, the choice seems clear. The battle for Bihar will be won or lost in the margins. The Left parties proved in 2020 that they are a lean, efficient electoral machine. They don’t just win their own seats; their dedicated workers can ensure a smooth transfer of votes to alliance candidates in adjacent constituencies.
As Bihar heads towards its next election, the main contest will be framed as Tejashwi Yadav vs the NDA. But the secret sauce for an MGB victory might just be the quiet, disciplined, and undeniably effective power of Red. The battle of 2020 sent a clear message: ignore the Left at your own peril.
