As Bihar prepares for the 2025 elections, Nitish Kumar’s enduring dominance as the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) chief ministerial face sparks debate. Despite nearly two decades in power, his strategic alliances, caste arithmetic, and governance record make him indispensable—even as rivals question his longevity.
Why Nitish Kumar is Unreplaceable in Bihar Politics
Nitish Kumar’s career mirrors Bihar’s political evolution:
– Overcame Lalu Prasad’s RJD dominance in the 1990s
– Built the “Sushasan Babu” (Good Governance) brand through infrastructure and welfare schemes
– Mastered caste coalitions, blending Kurmi-Koeri support with Mahadalit and EBC outreach
The BJP, despite its national strength, lacks a regional leader with Nitish’s grassroots appeal and administrative credibility.
3 Reasons NDA Can’t Drop Nitish (Yet)
- Caste Equations Still Favor Him
- Kurmi-Koeri base (4-6% of votes) anchors NDA’s coalition
- Mahadalit welfare schemes secure SC support
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BJP’s EBC gains complement rather than replace his influence
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No BJP Leader Matches His Profile
- Sushil Kumar Modi (ex-Deputy CM) retired; current BJP faces like Nityanand Rai lack statewide traction
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Nitish’s moderate image contrasts with polarizing BJP figures like Giriraj Singh
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Opposition’s Weak Counter-Narrative
- Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD focuses on unemployment but lacks governance credibility
- Nitish’s “stable vs. chaotic” framing still resonates with older voters
Emerging Threats to Nitish’s Reign
- Youth Discontent: 15% unemployment (CMIE 2023) and mass migration undermine development claims
- BJP’s Long Game: The party may push for leadership change post-2025 if it gains more seats
- Age Factor: At 73, succession planning looms—JD(U) has no clear second-rung leaders
2025: Make-or-Break for Bihar’s Veteran
The upcoming polls will test whether Nitish’s formula of caste management and incremental development can overcome anti-incumbency. While the BJP hedges its bets, one truth remains: Bihar’s political compass still points to Nitish Kumar—for now.
(Analysis updated June 2024)
