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Five years ago, Bihar witnessed one of its tightest electoral battles. The 2020 assembly elections saw the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) barely scrape through with a narrow majority. Fast forward to 2025, and early projections suggest a landslide victory for the NDA, with opposition parties struggling to stay relevant.
What changed in these five years? How did Bihar transition from a cliffhanger to a potential one-sided mandate? Let’s break it down.
The 2020 Election: A Fractured Verdict
The 2020 Bihar elections were a high-stakes contest between the NDA (Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) + BJP) and the Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress, and Left parties). The results were shocking—the NDA won 125 seats (just three above majority), while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats. Smaller parties like AIMIM and BSP split crucial votes, exposing the NDA’s weaknesses:
- Rising anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar
- BJP’s growing dominance within the alliance
- A fractured opposition that nearly toppled the regime
5 Key Reasons Behind the 2025 Landslide
1. BJP’s Strategic Expansion & Leadership Shift
Post-2020, the BJP doubled down on booth-level management and cadre mobilization. It sidelined Nitish Kumar, promoting state leaders like Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Sinha. PM Modi’s welfare schemes (Ujjwala, PM-KISAN, Ayushman Bharat) helped consolidate OBC and EBC voters, eroding RJD’s traditional base.
2. Nitish Kumar’s Flip-Flops & Erosion of Trust
Nitish’s 2022 alliance with RJD and 2024 return to NDA left voters disillusioned. His governance record—especially on unemployment and law & order—faced heavy criticism. While his Kurmi-Koeri base remains loyal, Mahadalits and EBCs have shifted toward the BJP.
3. RJD’s Leadership Crisis & Failed Promises
Tejashwi Yadav’s 10 lakh jobs pledge collapsed due to poor execution. Infighting and a disconnect with upper castes and Muslims (who now lean toward AIMIM) weakened the RJD’s grip.
4. From Caste Politics to Modi’s Development Push
In 2020, caste arithmetic ruled—RJD relied on Muslim-Yadav (MY) consolidation. By 2025, the BJP had expanded its base among non-Yadav OBCs (Kushwahas, Mallahs) and Dalits (Paswans, Pasis), blending Hindutva with welfare schemes.
5. Opposition’s Collapse & No Clear Agenda
The Mahagathbandhan fractured as leaders like Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi rejoined the NDA. Congress remained weak, and smaller parties (AIMIM, BSP) further split anti-NDA votes.
What Does 2025 Mean for Bihar?
If early trends hold, Bihar is headed for a BJP-dominated government with Nitish Kumar in a reduced role. This election could mark the end of Mandal politics, replacing it with Modi-centric nationalism and welfare-driven governance.
For the opposition, the challenge is existential—rebuild or risk irrelevance.
Final Takeaway: From Uncertainty to BJP Dominance
Bihar’s shift from a hung assembly in 2020 to a likely NDA sweep in 2025 underscores:
✅ BJP’s unmatched electoral machinery
✅ Nitish Kumar’s fading relevance
✅ Opposition’s failure to adapt
The state that once revolved around caste equations now bows to Modi’s influence and BJP’s expansion.
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