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The high-stakes Bihar Assembly election results are set to be announced today, marking the culmination of a fiercely contested battle between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). Exit polls suggest a tight race, but only the final count will reveal whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar secures another term or if Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of change wins over voters.
Here’s a breakdown of the key battles and factors that will shape Bihar’s political future:
1. Nitish Kumar vs. Anti-Incumbency: Can the CM Survive?
Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s longest-serving CM, faces strong anti-incumbency after 15 years in power. His alliance with the BJP and development claims are countered by grievances over unemployment, migration, and COVID-19 management. Will voters reward his experience or demand change?
2. Tejashwi Yadav’s Youth Push vs. BJP’s Election Machine
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav centered his campaign on jobs, education, and healthcare—resonating with young voters. However, the BJP’s organizational strength and PM Modi’s rallies could sway results. Did his “10 lakh jobs” promise outshine the NDA’s development pitch?
3. Crucial Constituency Battles to Watch
- Raghopur: Tejashwi Yadav’s own seat—victory here is critical for his leadership credibility.
- Banka: BJP’s Giriraj Singh faces RJD’s Javed Ansari in a high-profile clash.
- Hajipur: A three-way fight involving Chirag Paswan (LJP), complicating NDA’s prospects.
- Patna Sahib: NDA’s Nand Kishore Yadav vs. RJD’s Uday Narayan Chaudhary—a prestige battle.
4. Chirag Paswan’s Wildcard Role
LJP chief Chirag Paswan split from the NDA, fielding candidates against JD(U). His rebellion could split votes and damage Nitish Kumar’s chances. Will his gamble pay off?
5. Caste Arithmetic & Minority Votes
Bihar’s politics hinges on caste:
– NDA: Upper castes, EBCs, Dalits.
– Mahagathbandhan: Yadavs, Muslims, Mahadalits.
Swing voters among EBCs and Dalits may decide the outcome.
6. COVID-19 & Migration: Did It Sway Voters?
The pandemic and migrant crisis tested Nitish Kumar’s governance. Will economic distress push voters toward the opposition?
7. Exit Polls vs. Reality
Most exit polls favor the NDA narrowly, but Bihar has defied predictions before (e.g., 2015). Today’s results will reveal the truth.
Final Verdict: What’s at Stake?
By evening, Bihar will know if it’s:
✅ Nitish Kumar’s 5th term
✅ RJD’s comeback under Tejashwi
✅ Hung assembly leading to negotiations
The outcome will shape national politics ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
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