Bihar Verdict 2024: NDA’s Resounding Victory, Mahagathbandhan in Crisis
The Bihar Assembly election results have reaffirmed the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) dominance, with the Nitish Kumar-led coalition securing a clear majority. The Mahagathbandhan—comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties—faced a crushing defeat, exposing critical flaws in its strategy. Here’s a deep dive into the verdict.
Why the NDA Won: 4 Key Reasons
- Nitish Kumar’s Governance Edge
- Branded as Sushasan Babu, Nitish retained trust among women and EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) through welfare schemes and COVID-19 management.
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JD(U)’s outreach to Pasmanda Muslims (~4% vote share) dented the opposition’s minority base.
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BJP’s Election Machinery
- Central schemes (PM-KISAN, Ujjwala) were aggressively promoted, consolidating upper-caste and non-Yadav OBC votes.
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The BJP won more seats than JD(U), signaling growing dominance in the alliance.
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Opposition Vote Fragmentation
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AIMIM and LJP (Chirag Paswan) split anti-NDA votes in 15+ seats, aiding the coalition.
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Tejashwi’s Unfulfilled Promises
- While RJD’s “10 lakh jobs” pledge resonated, it failed to attract non-Yadav/Muslim voters.
Mahagathbandhan’s 3 Fatal Mistakes
- Overdependence on RJD’s MY (Muslim-Yadav) Base
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Limited appeal beyond core constituencies; EBCs/Savarnas leaned toward NDA.
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Congress as a Liability
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Won only 10% of contested seats, reflecting declining organizational strength.
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No Unified Narrative
- Mixed messaging on unemployment, caste census, and anti-BJP rhetoric lacked clarity.
Political Ramifications: Bihar & Beyond
- Nitish’s Survival: Likely to remain CM despite BJP’s larger tally, as the party prioritizes stability.
- BJP’s 2024 Blueprint: Reinforces dominance in Hindi heartland ahead of Lok Sabha elections.
- Opposition Woes: Congress’s decline continues; Tejashwi needs broader coalition-building.
Final Word: Stability Over Change
The results validate Bihar’s preference for continuity, with governance trumping caste calculus. For the Mahagathbandhan, a drastic overhaul is imperative to stay relevant.
— NextMinuteNews Analysis
