Bihar Election Results 2024: RJD Outvotes BJP, JDU but NDA Retains Power
The 2024 Bihar Assembly election results have delivered a nail-biting verdict. While the NDA (BJP+JDU) secured a majority with 122+ seats, Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD emerged as the single largest party by vote share (28.5%), surpassing both BJP (25.1%) and JDU (21.8%). This underscores RJD’s enduring grassroots support despite a seat-count setback.
Key Takeaways: Why RJD Won Votes but Lost Seats
1. First-Past-the-Post System Favored NDA
Bihar’s winner-takes-all electoral system amplified NDA’s narrow seat wins, while RJD’s votes were spread thin across constituencies.
2. Alliance Arithmetic: NDA’s Smarter Seat-Sharing
- BJP and JDU avoided direct contests, consolidating anti-RJD votes.
- RJD-Congress-Left coalition suffered from poor coordination and vote splits.
3. Caste Calculations
- NDA: Retained upper castes and EBCs (BJP) + Kurmi-Mahadalits (JDU).
- RJD: Muslim-Yadav (MY) base held firm but failed to attract new groups.
Tejashwi Yadav’s Campaign: Hits & Misses
✅ Successes:
– Promised 10 lakh jobs—resonated with youth.
– Record RJD vote share (up from 2020).
❌ Shortfalls:
– Couldn’t expand beyond MY voters.
– NDA countered with welfare schemes (PM-Kisan) and “double-engine sarkar” rhetoric.
NDA’s Victory with Cracks: Nitish’s Decline & BJP’s Rise
- Nitish Kumar: Set for 8th term as CM but JDU’s shrinking seats (↓21.8% votes) weaken his position.
- BJP: Gains in EBC-dominated seats; now NDA’s dominant force.
What’s Next for Bihar?
- RJD’s 2025 Strategy: Must woo EBCs/Dalits to challenge BJP.
- NDA Tensions: BJP may push to replace Nitish long-term.
- Lok Sabha Preview: 2024 results set the stage for a 2025 opposition unity test.
Final Verdict
NDA won the seats, but RJD’s vote share signals a competitive future. Tejashwi Yadav remains Bihar’s opposition torchbearer.
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