Bihar Exit Polls 2024: NDA Set for Landslide Victory with 148 Seats
The high-stakes Bihar Assembly elections 2024 have concluded, and exit polls predict a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP. The alliance is projected to secure around 148 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, comfortably surpassing the majority mark of 122. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties, is expected to win 80-95 seats.
Why NDA is Winning: Nitish’s Governance & BJP’s Strategy
The NDA’s success hinges on two key factors:
- Nitish Kumar’s Development Push: His focus on infrastructure, women’s empowerment (bicycle schemes, prohibition), and COVID-19 management resonated with voters.
- BJP’s Ground Game: The party leveraged PM Modi’s popularity and Hindu consolidation, especially in urban areas.
Major pollsters like Axis My India and India Today-CVoter predict 145-155 seats for the NDA, with JD(U) likely as the single largest party. The BJP could also increase its tally to 70+ seats, reshaping alliance dynamics.
MGB’s Shortfall: Tejashwi’s Promises vs. Reality
Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD-led MGB campaigned aggressively on jobs and economic issues, but exit polls suggest they fell short due to:
- Weak Alliance Coordination: Congress and Left struggled to mobilize votes effectively.
- Caste Dynamics: Nitish’s outreach to EBCs and Mahadalits weakened RJD’s traditional MY (Muslim-Yadav) base.
- BJP’s Counterattack: The “jungle raj” narrative and nationalism rhetoric swayed undecided voters.
Exit Poll Numbers at a Glance
- India Today-CVoter: NDA 148-160, MGB 75-87
- Axis My India: NDA 150-160, MGB 75-85
- Republic-Jan Ki Baat: NDA 155-165, MGB 70-80
Smaller parties like LJP may act as spoilers but won’t change the overall outcome.
What’s Next for Bihar Politics?
- Nitish Kumar is set for a fourth term, but a stronger BJP may demand more influence.
- Tejashwi Yadav faces a leadership test as MGB reevaluates strategy.
Final results on November 10 will confirm if exit polls hold true. Until then, Bihar’s political future remains a hot topic.
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