In the high-stakes game of Bihar politics, timing is everything. As the clock ticks towards the assembly elections, the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) has hit a significant snag. The self-imposed ‘deadline’ to finalize a crucial seat-sharing formula has come and gone, raising a critical question: Is this routine political haggling, or does it spell big trouble for the grand alliance?
The MGB, a coalition led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and featuring the Congress and a bloc of Left parties, is the primary challenger to the ruling NDA alliance of JD(U) and BJP. While their combined strength presents a formidable force on paper, the alliance is currently struggling to present a united front.
The Sticking Point: Who Gets How Many Seats?
Sources within the alliance suggest the stalemate boils down to a classic power tussle over the 243 assembly seats. Each partner is digging in its heels, unwilling to cede ground.
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RJD‘s ‘Big Brother’ Stance: The RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, views itself as the senior partner and the main engine of the opposition. It is reportedly adamant about contesting at least 150 seats, leaving the remaining 93 for all its allies combined.
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Congress Demands a ‘Respectable’ Share: Buoyed by recent performances elsewhere and eager to maintain national relevance, the Congress is pushing for a “respectable” share of around 70-75 seats. Party leaders argue their national appeal is crucial to attract votes beyond the RJD‘s traditional M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) base and that a smaller share would relegate them to permanent junior partner status.
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The Left’s Crucial Role: The Left parties, particularly the CPI-ML, hold significant influence in several pockets of Bihar. Unwilling to be a mere footnote, they are demanding a package of around 30 seats, confident their dedicated cadre can secure victories in a multi-cornered contest.
Why the Delay Spells Trouble for the MGB
This delay is more than a logistical headache; it has serious strategic implications that could benefit the ruling NDA.
1. Projects an Image of Disunity
At a time when the MGB should be showcasing a united vision against the Nitish Kumar government, these public squabbles hand a potent weapon to their rivals. BJP and JD(U) leaders are already framing the MGB as a chaotic, opportunistic alliance driven by ambition, not a cohesive plan for governance.
2. Stalls the On-the-Ground Campaign
Every day without a finalized seat-sharing deal is a day lost in the campaign. Potential candidates are left in limbo, unable to start mobilising support in their constituencies. This gives the well-organized and resource-rich NDA a crucial head start in reaching voters and setting the election narrative.
3. Risks Rebellion and Vote Splitting
A protracted and bitter negotiation risks creating bad blood among the allies. If a party feels short-changed, it can lead to a half-hearted campaign. In a worst-case scenario, disgruntled leaders denied tickets could play spoilsport by contesting as independents or even switching sides, thereby splitting the anti-incumbency vote that the MGB desperately needs to consolidate.
An Eleventh-Hour Compromise or a Widening Chasm?
Party insiders are putting on a brave face, issuing statements that a deal is “imminent” and these are just the “normal pressures of coalition politics.” While brinkmanship is common in politics, the missed deadline has exposed visible cracks. The shared goal of unseating the NDA is a powerful adhesive, but whether it’s strong enough remains to be seen.
For Tejashwi Yadav and his allies, the challenge is no longer just about defeating the NDA; it’s about conquering their own internal divisions first. The next few days will be critical in determining if the Mahagathbandhan can form a pragmatic front or if its internal chasm will become its undoing.
