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CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s In, Who’s Out Ahead of Second Rankings?

The College Football Playoff (CFP) race intensifies as the second rankings approach, with teams jockeying for position in the chase for a national title. The selection committee’s first rankings offered a snapshot, but pivotal matchups and potential upsets could reshape the playoff landscape. Here’s a detailed look at which teams are secure, which are hanging by a thread, and which are already eliminated.

Locked In: The Top Four Contenders

  1. Georgia Bulldogs (9-0) – The two-time defending champs remain unbeaten, with statement wins over Florida and Missouri. Their path includes tests against Ole Miss and Tennessee, but they control their fate.

  2. Michigan Wolverines (9-0) – Undeterred by off-field drama, Michigan’s dominant play keeps them in the top tier. Season-defining games vs. Penn State and Ohio State await.

  3. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) – Victories over Notre Dame and Penn State bolster their résumé. The November 25 clash with Michigan could decide their playoff fate.

  4. Florida State Seminoles (9-0) – A strong win over LSU headlines their schedule, but their remaining matchups (Miami, Florida) must be handled cleanly to stay in the top four.

Eliminated: Teams Out of the Running

  • USC Trojans (7-3) – Crushing losses to Notre Dame and Utah ended their playoff hopes.
  • Kansas State Wildcats (6-3) – Early promise faded with defeats to Oklahoma State and Texas.
  • UCLA Bruins (6-3) – Inconsistencies against Arizona and Oregon State sealed their fate.

On the Bubble: Teams Fighting for a Spot

  1. Washington Huskies (9-0) – Narrow wins over weaker opponents raise questions. Games vs. Utah, Oregon State, and Oregon will prove their legitimacy.

  2. Oregon Ducks (8-1) – Their lone loss to Washington was a heartbreaker. Winning out, including a Pac-12 title, could vault them into the top four.

  3. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) – A Texas loss stung, but the Tide have rallied. Beating Georgia in the SEC Championship would make them hard to deny.

  4. Texas Longhorns (8-1) – Quinn Ewers’ health is critical. Their head-to-head win over Alabama is a trump card, but they must win out.

  5. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) – The Ohio State loss was damaging, but beating Michigan could reignite their playoff hopes.

Games That Will Reshape the Rankings

  • Georgia vs. Ole Miss (Nov. 11) – Can the Rebels shock the Dawgs?
  • Michigan vs. Penn State (Nov. 11) – A playoff eliminator for Penn State.
  • Oregon vs. USC (Nov. 11) – The Ducks must avoid a letdown.
  • Washington vs. Oregon State (Nov. 18) – A tricky road test for the Huskies.

The Road Ahead

With chaos inevitable, the next two weeks will separate contenders from pretenders. Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, and Florida State appear safe—for now—but Washington, Oregon, Alabama, and Texas are poised to capitalize on any slip-ups. The committee’s next rankings will reveal who’s truly in the driver’s seat.

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