As Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto completes his first year in office, experts like Eve Warburton, a leading scholar of Indonesian politics, assess his leadership amid rising debates about democracy, economic reform, and geopolitical strategy.
Prabowo’s Presidency: A Complex Legacy Begins
Prabowo, a former military general and polarizing figure, won the 2024 election amid allegations of voter suppression and elite consolidation. His tenure so far reflects a duality—populist welfare programs paired with close ties to business-military elites.
Warburton highlights his populist gestures, such as free school meals and cash transfers, which appeal to low-income voters. Yet, his reliance on establishment networks fuels concerns about democratic backsliding in Southeast Asia’s largest democracy.
Economic Vision: Populism vs. Fiscal Reality
Prabowo’s “Free Nutritious Meals” program targets child malnutrition but faces skepticism over long-term funding. With Indonesia’s debt-to-GDP ratio rising, economists warn against unsustainable spending.
His resource nationalism—tightening control over nickel and palm oil—plays well domestically but risks alienating foreign investors. Warburton notes a lack of coherent strategy: “Can Prabowo balance welfare promises with investor confidence?”
Democracy & Human Rights: Backsliding Concerns
Prabowo’s past as a military commander looms over his presidency. Critics point to:
– Weakened opposition: Defamation laws used to silence dissent.
– Stalled justice: No accountability for military abuses (e.g., 1998 crackdown).
Warburton warns: “Without institutional checks, Indonesia’s democratic decline may accelerate.”
Foreign Policy: Walking the Tightrope
Prabowo maintains non-aligned pragmatism, engaging both China (infrastructure deals) and the West. However, his muted stance on the South China Sea raises questions about Indonesia’s ASEAN leadership.
Key Challenges for Year Two
Warburton identifies Prabowo’s make-or-break priorities:
1. Economic stability: Sustainable welfare without debt crises.
2. Democratic safeguards: Curbing authoritarian tendencies.
3. Geopolitical clarity: Asserting Indonesia’s role amid U.S.-China rivalry.
“Prabowo’s presidency is still defining itself,” Warburton concludes. “The next year will reveal whether he leans into reform or repression.”
