Just two years ago, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was a global outcast. The 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, US intelligence’s damning assessment of MBS’s involvement, and Biden’s campaign pledge to treat Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” had frozen Riyadh’s relationship with Washington. Yet today, MBS isn’t just back in America’s good graces—he’s dictating terms. From F-35 jets and AI chips to trillion-dollar investments, Saudi Arabia is leveraging its economic might and geopolitical clout to reshape US priorities. How did the crown prince pull off this stunning reversal?
From Pariah to Power Player: MBS’s Geopolitical Pivot
When President Biden took office in 2021, he vowed to recalibrate US-Saudi relations, freezing arms sales and snubbing MBS directly. The Kingdom responded with defiance—slashing oil production despite US pressure, deepening ties with China, and even hosting a grinning Vladimir Putin in Riyadh. The message was clear: Saudi Arabia wouldn’t wait for Washington’s approval.
But by mid-2022, global realities shifted. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring, and China’s brokering of a Saudi-Iran détente startled US policymakers. Suddenly, Saudi Arabia’s strategic value—as an oil titan, counterterrorism ally, and counterweight to Iran—became impossible to ignore.
Vision 2030: Saudi Arabia’s Trillion-Dollar Leverage
MBS’s masterstroke has been Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plan to diversify its economy beyond oil. The $620 billion Public Investment Fund (PIF) is snapping up global assets—from Premier League football clubs to electric carmakers—while NEOM, a $500 billion megacity, symbolizes Saudi ambition.
US tech and defense giants, eyeing lucrative contracts, began lobbying Washington to thaw relations. In May 2023, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Riyadh, and by June, Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was negotiating a landmark US-Saudi defense pact. The potential prize? Saudi normalization with Israel—a long-sought US goal—in exchange for advanced weapons, AI investments, and a NATO-like security guarantee.
F-35s and AI: The New US-Saudi Bargaining Chips
Reports now suggest the US is considering selling F-35 stealth jets to Riyadh—a move previously unthinkable due to Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is pouring billions into AI, partnering with Silicon Valley firms and even poaching top talent from Google and Microsoft.
But there’s a catch: China’s influence looms large. Riyadh has already joined the China-led SCO, bought drones from Beijing, and is reportedly manufacturing ballistic missiles with Chinese help. For Washington, the choice is stark—cede ground to China or accommodate MBS’s demands.
The High Cost of Realpolitik: MBS’s Unchecked Rise
MBS’s resurgence underscores a hard truth in geopolitics: money and strategic necessity trump moral posturing. With Saudi Arabia controlling 17% of the world’s proven oil reserves and spearheading a Sunni bloc against Iran, the US can’t afford to sideline Riyadh.
Yet critics warn that embracing MBS risks emboldening authoritarianism. Human rights activists point to Saudi Arabia’s executions, suppression of dissent, and the ongoing Yemen war. But in Washington’s calculus, realpolitik prevails.
What’s Next for US-Saudi Relations?
The coming months will test whether the US-Saudi-Israel deal materializes. If it does, MBS will cement his status as the Middle East’s undisputed power broker—while Washington swallows its principles for pragmatism.
One thing is certain: the crown prince, once shunned, now holds the cards. And in the high-stakes game of global diplomacy, money and power talk louder than morality.
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