The political tightrope Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been walking for months has just become razor-thin. On one side lies a US-backed, three-phase ceasefire plan for Gaza—a proposal born from his own war cabinet but now championed by President Joe Biden. On the other, the unyielding demands of his far-right coalition partners, who see any deal with Hamas as a capitulation that will bring down his government.
From New Delhi to Washington, the world is watching this high-stakes decision. The choice before Netanyahu is not merely tactical; it is a defining moment for his legacy, Israel’s strategic direction, and the faint glimmer of hope for stability in the war-torn region.
Biden’s Push: The Three-Phase Ceasefire Proposal
Last week, President Joe Biden took the unusual step of publicly detailing what he called an “Israeli proposal.” The plan, which some analysts have linked in spirit to frameworks discussed during the Trump administration’s “deal of the century” due to its transactional nature, is ambitious and sequential.
- Phase One: A six-week complete ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, and the release of numerous hostages—including women, the elderly, and the wounded—in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
- Phase Two: A permanent end to hostilities, the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the release of all remaining living hostages.
- Phase Three: The launch of a major, internationally-backed reconstruction plan for Gaza.
Crucially, Biden presented this not as an American ultimatum, but as Israel’s own offer. This masterful political move cornered Netanyahu, making it difficult for him to reject a plan that originated, at least in part, from his own security establishment. For the United States and other global powers, this proposal represents the most viable path out of the current Israel-Hamas war.
Far-Right Ultimatum: ‘No Deal Without Total Victory’
However, Netanyahu’s political survival is tethered to the most extreme elements in his government. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir were swift and brutal in their response. They have threatened to immediately collapse the coalition and force new elections if Netanyahu agrees to any deal that does not include the “total destruction” of Hamas.
For these far-right leaders, the war is an ideological crusade. They view the proposed deal as a reward for terror and a betrayal of the war’s primary objectives. Their political base thrives on a narrative of uncompromising strength, and any deviation is seen as weakness. By holding the government’s fate in their hands, they have effectively presented Netanyahu with an ultimatum: choose us, or choose the deal.
Netanyahu’s Political Crossroads: US Alliance vs. Government Survival
This leaves Netanyahu trapped between two irreconcilable pressures.
On one hand, accepting the Gaza plan would align him with his most crucial ally, the United States. It would answer the desperate pleas of the hostage families, whose protests have become a powerful domestic movement. It could also salvage Israel’s deteriorating international standing and open a path toward a broader regional arrangement, including normalization with Saudi Arabia—a long-held strategic prize.
On the other hand, acquiescing to his far-right partners ensures his immediate political survival. Rejecting the deal would satisfy his nationalist base and maintain his hawkish credentials. But the cost would be immense: a potential rupture with the Biden administration, continued global isolation, a deepening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the uncertain fate of the remaining hostages.
The coming days will reveal whether Netanyahu will accept the Trump-era style Gaza plan framework championed by Biden or pander to the far-right. Will he act as a statesman, seizing a complex opportunity for peace, or will he act as a politician, prioritizing the extremist voices that keep him in power and prolonging a devastating conflict? The world holds its breath.
