Cracks Appear in RJD’s Muslim-Yadav Base as BJP, JD(U) Make Gains

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Bihar’s dominant force in Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) politics, faces an existential threat as its core support base fractures. Recent elections reveal declining loyalty among Yadavs and Muslims—once the party’s unbeatable combination. What’s driving this shift, and can RJD recover?

The M-Y Formula: RJD’s Rise & Fall

Founded by Lalu Prasad Yadav in 1997, the RJD thrived by uniting Yadavs (OBCs) and Muslims (17% of Bihar’s population). This bloc powered 15 years of RJD rule (1990–2005). Yet, the 2020 Bihar polls hinted at trouble: JD(U) and BJP siphoned off M-Y votes, narrowing RJD’s margins.

4 Reasons Behind RJD’s Eroding Base

1. Youth Demand Development Over Identity

Younger, educated Yadavs and Muslims want jobs and governance—not just caste-religion rhetoric. RJD’s stagnant agenda struggles to resonate.

2. BJP’s OBC Playbook: Winning Yadavs?

The BJP’s non-Yadav OBC outreach (e.g., Samrat Choudhary) and welfare schemes (Ujjwala, PM-Kisan) attract urban Yadavs, diluting RJD’s rural stronghold.

3. Muslim Vote Splits Between AIMIM, JD(U)

Frustrated by RJD’s weak leadership, Muslims explore alternatives: Owaisi’s AIMIM in Seemanchal or Nitish’s JD(U), despite BJP ties.

4. Tejashwi’s Leadership Test

With Lalu sidelined, Tejashwi Yadav’s 2020/2024 losses raise doubts. Can he reinvent the party beyond his father’s shadow?

2024 Lok Sabha: A Dire Warning

The INDIA bloc’s poor Bihar performance (RJD: 4 seats) confirmed the trend. Even Yadav bastions saw thinner margins, signaling BJP-JD(U)’s growing appeal.

Can RJD Survive? 3 Key Steps

• Pivot to Development: Highlight jobs, education, and anti-BJP unity to retain youth.
• Reclaim Grassroots: Fix local grievances (e.g., irrigation, crime) to rebuild M-Y trust.
• Counter Hindutva: Frame inclusive policies without alienating Hindu Yadavs.

Verdict: If RJD clings to old tactics, Bihar’s political map may rewrite itself—leaving the party in the margins.