The 2024 Bihar election results delivered a paradoxical outcome: the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) emerged as the vote share leader, while the BJP-JD(U) alliance clinched a majority of seats. This divergence offers critical insights into Bihar’s complex electoral dynamics.
Key Results at a Glance
- RJD: 25% vote share (75 seats)
- BJP: 20% vote share (85 seats)
- JD(U): 18% vote share (70 seats)
- Alliance Advantage: BJP+JD(U) crossed the 122-seat majority mark, ensuring Nitish Kumar’s record eighth term as CM.
Why Votes Didn’t Translate to Seats for RJD
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First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) System:
The RJD’s votes were spread thin across constituencies, while BJP-JD(U) concentrated efforts in winnable seats. -
Alliance Efficiency:
The BJP-JD(U) combine avoided vote-splitting, leveraging booth-level management and caste consolidation (EBCs, Mahadalits, upper castes).
Caste vs. Hindutva: The Winning Formula
- RJD’s Base: Retained Yadav-Muslim support but failed to expand beyond its core.
- BJP’s Strategy: Combined Modi’s popularity with Hindutva to attract non-Yadav OBCs and upper castes.
- JD(U)’s Edge: Held Koeri-Kurmi and EBC votes, reinforcing Nitish’s “development with justice” plank.
Tejashwi’s Campaign & Lalu’s Shadow
Tejashwi Yadav’s focus on employment and welfare resonated with youth, but the BJP-JD(U) narrative of “Jungle Raj 2.0” deterred swing voters.
What’s Next for Bihar?
- Nitish Kumar: Expected to continue welfare schemes amid scrutiny over BJP ties.
- RJD: Must diversify its voter base and address leadership tussles.
- BJP: Strengthens its role as the central pole of Indian politics, even without leading the state.
Key Takeaway
Bihar’s results reaffirm that seat arithmetic trumps vote share in India’s FPTP system. While the RJD won the popular mandate, strategic alliances and caste calculus powered the BJP-JD(U) to victory.
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