In a striking reversal, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has regained his place in Washington’s strategic playbook. Despite the 2018 Jamal Khashoggi scandal that isolated him, MBS is now indispensable—thanks to Saudi Arabia’s oil dominance, counterterrorism role, and alignment with U.S. priorities against Iran and China.
From Diplomatic Outcast to Strategic Ally
After the CIA implicated MBS in Khashoggi’s murder, the U.S. vowed to sideline Saudi Arabia. But by 2022, surging oil prices and Russia’s Ukraine invasion forced a U-turn. The Biden administration, once critical, now prioritizes stability over scrutiny.
Key turning points:
– Biden’s 2022 Jeddah visit, marked by a controversial fist-bump, signaled a thaw.
– Saudi-led OPEC+ oil production cuts proved Riyadh’s leverage over global markets.
– China’s rising Middle East influence pressured the U.S. to re-engage its longtime ally.
Why Washington Can’t Quit MBS
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Oil & Economic Security
As the world’s largest crude exporter, Saudi Arabia controls prices that impact U.S. inflation and elections. With 2024 looming, Biden needs Riyadh’s cooperation to avoid fuel crises. -
Countering Iran & China
Saudi Arabia is pivotal in containing Iranian aggression and resisting Beijing’s Belt and Road expansion. A U.S.-Saudi-Israel defense pact could reshape regional alliances. -
Vision 2030’s Golden Opportunities
MBS’s $1 trillion NEOM megacity and AI investments (via PIF) lure U.S. tech, defense, and entertainment giants—making decoupling economically unviable.
Human Rights Fade Into the Background
Critics decry the moral compromise, citing Saudi Arabia’s Yemen war, women’s rights record, and jailed dissidents. Yet, pragmatism dominates.
“The U.S. needs Saudi oil and security collaboration more than Riyadh needs Washington’s approval,” says analyst Tarek Fatah.
Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations
- Israel-Saudi normalization: A top U.S. goal to counter Iran.
- AI & gaming deals: PIF’s $38 billion push into tech aligns with U.S. industry interests.
- Post-2024 election dynamics: Will a new administration double down or recalibrate?
The Bottom Line
MBS’s resurgence underscores a hard truth: in geopolitics, power outweighs principles. With energy, defense, and tech ties deepening, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince is back—and Washington has no alternative but to deal.
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