A Familiar Pattern of Intimidation
The delicate peace of the Taiwan Strait was tested again this week as Taipei’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported a significant presence of Chinese military assets operating near its shores. Over a 24-hour period, Taiwan detected nine Chinese aircraft, four People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels, and two China Coast Guard (CCG) ships in its vicinity, a now-familiar pattern of intimidation from Beijing.
According to the MND’s public release, its forces closely monitored the situation and responded by deploying patrol aircraft, naval vessels, and land-based missile systems to track the Chinese movements. This swift and measured response underscores the high-stakes, real-time geopolitical chess match that has become a daily reality for the democratic island of 23 million people.
China’s ‘Grey-Zone’ Strategy at Play
While no aircraft crossed the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait—an unofficial buffer zone—the coordinated presence of air and sea power is a clear signal. This is a classic example of what military analysts call “grey-zone” warfare. These are coercive actions that fall short of an outright act of war but are designed to exhaust an opponent, test their response times, and normalize an aggressive military presence.
For China, the goal is twofold: to wear down Taiwan’s military readiness and to psychologically intimidate its populace and leadership, subtly eroding their will to resist.
Context: A Sustained Pressure Campaign
This latest incursion does not occur in a vacuum. It is part of a sustained pressure campaign that has intensified since the inauguration of Taiwan’s new President, Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing has openly labelled a “dangerous separatist.”
Following his inauguration speech, in which he called on China to cease its intimidation, Beijing launched large-scale military drills codenamed “Joint Sword-2024A,” simulating a full-scale blockade and assault on the island. The constant sorties by aircraft and naval patrols are the low-rumble aftermath of that thunderous warning.
An Unsettling Parallel for India
For observers in New Delhi, this pattern of behaviour is uncomfortably familiar. China’s strategy of using persistent, low-level military pressure to assert territorial claims and alter the status quo mirrors its tactics along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India. The concept of “salami-slicing”—making small, incremental moves that individually do not provoke a major conflict but collectively change the strategic landscape—is a hallmark of Beijing’s foreign policy, whether in the Himalayas or the Taiwan Strait.
The stability of this region is a matter of critical national interest for India. The Taiwan Strait is a vital artery for global trade, and any conflict that disrupts these sea lanes would have a devastating impact on the Indian economy.
Furthermore, the situation reinforces the strategic logic behind India’s growing engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Initiatives like the Quad (comprising India, the US, Japan, and Australia) are fundamentally about ensuring a free, open, and rules-based order—an order directly challenged by Beijing’s actions around Taiwan.
A Global Watch on a War of Attrition
In conclusion, the detection of nine aircraft and a handful of ships may seem like a minor footnote in global news, but it is a crucial move in a protracted war of attrition. Each sortie is a test, and each naval patrol is a statement. For Taiwan, it is a daily fight for survival. For the rest of the world, it is a stark reminder that the simmering tensions in the Indo-Pacific could boil over at any moment, with consequences that would be felt in every corner of the globe.
