Trump’s Thanksgiving Dinner Claim: Fact or Fiction?
Former President Donald Trump recently asserted that Thanksgiving dinner costs would drop by 25% in 2025 due to his proposed economic policies. While the promise resonates with inflation-weary Americans, is it grounded in reality? We examined the data to uncover the truth.
Breaking Down Trump’s Statement
At a Michigan rally, Trump tied his policies—tax cuts, deregulation, and trade reforms—to lower holiday meal costs. “Families will save 25% on Thanksgiving by 2025,” he claimed.
But economists emphasize that food pricing depends on global supply chains, weather, and consumer demand—factors no single policy can fully control.
Thanksgiving Dinner Costs: Historical Trends
Data from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) shows the average cost for a 10-person meal:
– 2020: $46.90
– 2021: $53.31 (13.6% spike from pandemic disruptions)
– 2022: $64.05 (20% inflation-driven jump)
– 2023: $61.17 (4.5% dip, still above pre-pandemic levels)
A 25% drop from 2023’s price would mean $45.88—matching 2020 costs. But is this plausible?
4 Key Factors That Could Impact 2025 Prices
- Inflation & Supply Chains – Global conflicts (e.g., Ukraine war) and transportation costs heavily influence food prices.
- Agricultural Policies – Crop yields, fuel expenses, and tariffs (like Trump’s 2018 trade wars) sway costs.
- Consumer Demand – Rising wages could sustain high demand, preventing steep price cuts.
- Climate Change – Droughts and extreme weather disrupt turkey and vegetable production.
What Experts Say
- Supportive Takes: Some economists argue deregulation might reduce production costs.
- Mainstream Skepticism: Moody’s Analytics warns a 25% decline is “highly improbable without deflation.” The USDA forecasts only 1-2% annual food price drops.
Could Trump’s Policies Move the Needle?
His plan includes:
– Cutting energy regulations to lower fuel/fertilizer expenses.
– Revising trade deals to reduce food import tariffs.
– Tax incentives for farmers to boost output.
While these measures could ease prices, experts say effects would be incremental—not a sudden 25% plunge.
Final Verdict: Manage Expectations
Trump’s claim appears more campaign rhetoric than economic certainty. Barring a major recession or deflation, a 25% price cut is unrealistic. Shoppers might see slight relief, but drastic savings are unlikely.
Pro Tip: To save, buy store brands, freeze items early, and track seasonal sales.
Your Turn: Do you believe 2025 Thanksgiving meals will be cheaper? Share your thoughts below!
