The Spectre of the G-2
The world held its breath as US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping shook hands, the flash of cameras momentarily illuminating the high-stakes diplomatic theatre. The immediate focus was on trade tariffs, geopolitical flashpoints, and the personal chemistry between two of the world’s most powerful leaders. But for strategic thinkers in New Delhi’s South Block, the meeting conjured a familiar ghost at the banquet: the G-2.
The G-2, or Group of Two, is a proposed informal special relationship where the United States and China would collaborate to steer the global agenda. It’s a concept that suggests a bipolar world order where Washington and Beijing sit at the head of the table, making the big decisions on everything from climate change to global economic governance. With every Trump-Xi summit, the question for India resurfaces with renewed urgency: in a world potentially run by two, where does the third-largest Asian economy and a rising global power fit in?
A Rivalry, Not a Partnership
On one hand, the prospect of a full-blown G-2 seems remote. The very foundations of the US-China relationship are built on a bedrock of deep-seated rivalry, not partnership. They are strategic competitors locked in a struggle for technological supremacy, military dominance in the Indo-Pacific, and ideological influence. Trump’s “America First” doctrine and Xi’s assertive “China Dream” are fundamentally nationalistic visions that leave little room for a shared global condominium.
Furthermore, the world is arguably too complex and multipolar for such a simple duopoly. Powers like the European Union, Russia, Japan, and indeed India, possess enough economic and strategic heft to resist being relegated to the sidelines.
India’s Real Fear: The ‘De Facto’ G-2
However, to dismiss the concern entirely would be dangerously naive for New Delhi. The real worry for India isn’t a formal G-2 alliance, but a de facto one, where the US and China find it more convenient to cut deals between themselves, bypassing established multilateral forums and, in the process, sidelining Indian interests.
Imagine a scenario where Washington and Beijing arrive at a private understanding on the future of Afghanistan, ignoring India’s significant security stakes in the region. Or a situation where they set global standards for 5G and Artificial Intelligence, forcing India to choose between two technological ecosystems. In a G-2 world, India’s carefully cultivated policy of strategic autonomy—the ability to engage with all major powers without being locked into a binding alliance—would come under immense pressure. The space for independent action would shrink dramatically.
Capping India’s Rise
This is the core of India’s dilemma. A G-2 arrangement could effectively cap India’s global aspirations. It would create a geopolitical glass ceiling, limiting India’s role to that of a regional manager rather than a global rule-shaper. Issues of vital national interest, from border disputes with China to freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean, could be framed within a US-China dynamic, diminishing India’s agency.
India’s Playbook: A Multipolar Strategy
So, what is India’s playbook? The answer lies not in worrying, but in working to ensure the world remains multipolar. This involves a two-pronged approach:
- Accelerating Internal Strengthening: A $5 trillion economy, a modernised military, and a robust technological base are the best guarantees against being ignored. The stronger India is domestically, the more indispensable it becomes globally.
- Proactive and Agile Diplomacy: India is doubling down on “multi-alignment.” It is deepening the Quad partnership with the US, Japan, and Australia to balance China, while simultaneously engaging with Beijing through forums like the SCO and BRICS. By building a web of issue-based coalitions, India ensures it is a crucial node in the international network.
Ultimately, the Trump-Xi summit is a powerful reminder that the global chessboard is constantly being rearranged. While the G-2 may remain a theoretical concept, the gravitational pull of the two largest economies is undeniable. For India, the challenge is not to fear this pull, but to build its own centre of gravity, ensuring that any new world order is not a G-2, but a G-All.
