Introduction: A Decade of Highs and Lows
The last 10 years have tested U.S.-Saudi relations like never before. From energy battles to human rights scandals, the strategic alliance has weathered cooperation, confrontation, and uneasy compromise. Here’s a timeline of the defining moments.
2014–2016: Oil Wars and Iran Deal Strains
The U.S. shale boom reduced reliance on Saudi oil, sparking an economic clash. In 2014, Saudi Arabia flooded the market, crashing prices to undermine U.S. producers—a move widely seen as a power play.
Simultaneously, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal angered Riyadh, which feared a emboldened Tehran. Behind closed doors, Saudi leaders pressured Washington, though publicly the alliance held.
2016–2018: Trump’s Warm Embrace Meets the Khashoggi Scandal
President Trump’s 2017 Riyadh visit—featuring a $110 billion arms deal—signaled a Saudi-friendly shift. His administration backed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) amid reforms like lifting the female driving ban.
The 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi shattered goodwill. CIA reports tied MBS to the killing, but Trump prioritized arms sales and counterterrorism, avoiding sanctions. Global outrage left lasting scars.
2019–2020: OPEC Cuts and Regional Friction
COVID-19 demand crashes led to a 2020 Saudi-Russia oil price war, devastating U.S. energy jobs. Trump threatened to withdraw troops, labeling it “betrayal.” Meanwhile, Saudi actions in Yemen and Qatar alienated Democrats, foreshadowing Biden’s tougher stance.
2021–2022: Biden’s Reset Falters Over Oil and Ukraine
President Biden initially froze arms sales and released the Khashoggi report, straining ties. Yet Russia’s Ukraine invasion forced cooperation. When OPEC+ cut production in 2022—bolstering Moscow—Biden vowed “consequences,” but Riyadh refused to bend.
2023–2024: A Pragmatic but Uneasy Partnership
Today, the relationship balances mutual needs:
– U.S. priorities: Countering Iran, brokering Israel-Saudi normalization, and stabilizing energy markets.
– Saudi goals: Securing U.S. defense guarantees while diversifying ties (e.g., China-brokered Iran deal, LIV Golf investments).
Conclusion: What’s Next for U.S.-Saudi Ties?
The alliance endures but grows more transactional. With Saudi Arabia asserting independence and U.S. elections looming, the next decade promises further volatility.
