As Venezuela’s crisis worsens under Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian rule, the country’s fractured opposition is placing its hopes on a controversial figure: Donald Trump. With Maduro tightening his grip and free elections unlikely, opposition leaders believe only Trump’s hardline policies can force change. But betting on Trump carries major risks—will he deliver, or leave them worse off?
Why Venezuela’s Opposition Is Turning to Trump
Venezuela’s opposition, led by figures like María Corina Machado and the fading interim government of Juan Guaidó, has failed to dislodge Maduro despite years of sanctions and global condemnation. President Biden’s partial sanctions relief has yielded little progress, pushing opposition leaders to seek Trump’s return.
“Trump’s maximum pressure policy was the only time Maduro felt real pain,” said an anonymous opposition strategist. “We need that fear again.”
Trump’s Record on Venezuela: Hardline but Unpredictable
During his presidency, Trump imposed crushing oil sanctions, recognized Guaidó as the legitimate leader, and even hinted at military action. His aggressive stance briefly forced Maduro to negotiate—but critics say his policy lacked long-term strategy.
Now, with Trump leading 2024 polls, opposition figures are lobbying his advisors, hoping for a revival of his hardline approach. Yet Trump’s transactional style cuts both ways: he could escalate sanctions or suddenly cut a deal with Maduro for oil concessions.
The Dangers of Relying on Trump
Trump’s foreign policy was famously erratic—recall his abrupt abandonment of Kurdish allies in Syria. If re-elected, he might:
– Reinstate harsh sanctions, worsening Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis.
– Strike a deal with Maduro for oil, leaving the opposition stranded.
– Shift focus abruptly, leaving Venezuela’s crisis unresolved.
Experts warn: “Change won’t come from Washington alone,” says analyst Diego Moya-Ocampos. “The opposition needs unity and grassroots momentum.”
Maduro’s Next Move
Maduro has survived multiple U.S. administrations and may see Trump’s return as a dual threat and opportunity. If Trump prioritizes oil, Maduro could offer limited reforms to ease sanctions—further dividing the opposition.
What’s Next for Venezuela’s Opposition?
With Maduro’s 2024 re-election likely to be a sham, time is running out. The opposition is split:
– Some court Trump, hoping for a sanctions-driven victory.
– Others push for regional alliances or new negotiations.
The harsh reality: If Trump loses, the opposition could be left with no backup plan. As one Caracas activist said, “We can’t wait for a savior. Change must start here.”
